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Weather · Featured
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Resolution source
earthquake.usgs.govThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Read full rules1
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Category 3
Category 4
4.00 to 4.99 ft
6.00 ft or more
Over 2.5
2.25–2.5
Yes
No
Violent
Strong
35 - 59
20 - 34
8
7
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft
Below 4,189.3 ft
Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
Japan
Indonesia
≥110 mph
≥95 mph
Yes
No
7.70 ft or more
7.90 ft or more
7.0+
7.5+
Hawaii
Louisiana
Yes
No
-1.00 to 0.99 ft
-3.00 to -1.01 ft
Under 5%
40% to 59.99%
1.45–1.49ºC
1.35–1.39ºC
March 31, 2027
December 31, 2026
Yes
No
Drier
Wetter
Yes
No
Yes
No
50 - 74
Under 25
Yes
No
1-3
4-6
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No