Natural Disaster in 2026?

$251K Vol.Mar 1, 2027

Market probability

13% chance

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

Yes
$251K Vol.
13%1%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Timeline and payout

Ends March 1, 2027.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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