Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

$1.1M Vol.Jan 1, 2028

Market probability

December 31, 202750.0%June 30, 202734.0%December 31, 20265.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

December 31, 2027
$108 Vol.
50%4%
June 30, 2027
$33 Vol.
34%6%
December 31, 2026
$1.1M Vol.
5%

Market rules

About this market

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Timeline and payout

Ends January 1, 2028.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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