Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$193K Vol.Nov 4, 2026

Market probability

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate70.0%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate28.0%Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate2.0%

Chance · Price per share

Market rules

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

Timeline and payout

Ends November 4, 2026.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

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