Which bills will become law in 2026?

$188K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Market probability

Export-control chip security33.0%AI-chip export licensing22.0%Trump Airport17.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

Export-control chip security
$4.7K Vol.
33%
AI-chip export licensing
$6.3K Vol.
22%3%
Trump Airport
$2K Vol.
17%15%
Data center utility cost protection
$3.4K Vol.
17%
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
$111K Vol.
16%1%
Credit-card routing competition
$1.3K Vol.
14%2%
NO FAKES Act
$785 Vol.
13%2%
Critical-minerals stockpile
$1.7K Vol.
9%
DEFIANCE Act
$1K Vol.
7%3%
$2.50 Coin
$697 Vol.
7%1%
Film/TV production expensing
$3.7K Vol.
6%
SELF DRIVE Act
$496 Vol.
5%3%
SHOWER Act
$696 Vol.
4%2%
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
$4.3K Vol.
4%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Timeline and payout

Ends January 1, 2027.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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