What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1.9M Vol.Dec 31, 2026

Market probability

↑ 4.25%75.0% ↑ 4.5%15.0% ↑ 4.75%8.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

↑ 4.25%
$148K Vol.
75%3%
↑ 4.5%
$48.8K Vol.
15%8%
↑ 4.75%
$81.3K Vol.
8%
↑ 5.0%
$20.2K Vol.
3%1%
↓ 0.5%
$108K Vol.
3%1%
↓ 2.75%
$374K Vol.
2%
↓ 0%
$21.4K Vol.
2%
↑ 5.5%
$57.3K Vol.
2%
↑ 5.25%
$143K Vol.
2%
↓ 1.0%
$2.4K Vol.
2%
↓ 1.5%
$28.4K Vol.
2%
↓ 0.75%
$741 Vol.
2%
↓ 2.25%
$42.4K Vol.
2%
↓ 2.5%
$227K Vol.
2%
↓ 0.25%
$133K Vol.
2%
↓ 3.25%
$82.2K Vol.
2%
↓ 1.25%
$5.2K Vol.
2%
↓ 3.0%
$324K Vol.
1%
↓ 2.0%
$23.1K Vol.
1%
↓ 1.75%
$13.3K Vol.
1%

Market rules

About this market

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Timeline and payout

Ends December 31, 2026.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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