Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$3.6M Vol.Jan 1, 2028

Market probability

$100M99.0%$200M96.0%$300M95.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

$100M
$82.8K Vol.
99%1%
$200M
$79.5K Vol.
96%
$300M
$278K Vol.
95%2%
$500M
$1M Vol.
87%
$800M
$517K Vol.
71%
$1B
$822K Vol.
59%1%
$2B
$422K Vol.
25%
$3B
$145K Vol.
13%1%
$4B
$180K Vol.
6%
$5B
$102K Vol.
3%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Timeline and payout

Ends January 1, 2028.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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