Geopolitics
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
$15.3M Vol.Aug 31, 2026
August 3195.0%August 1493.0%July 3192.0%
August 31
$1.5M Vol.
95%3%
August 14
$1.3M Vol.
93%3%
July 31
$7.6M Vol.
92%3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the outcome described in “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)” occurs by August 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements and a consensus of credible reporting.