Richest person on December 31, 2026?

$2M Vol.Jan 3, 2027

Market probability

Elon Musk97.0%Bernard Arnault1.0%Warren Buffett1.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

Elon Musk
$198K Vol.
97%
Bernard Arnault
$371K Vol.
1%1%
Warren Buffett
$93.6K Vol.
1%
Jeff Bezos
$349K Vol.
0%
Steve Ballmer
$314K Vol.
0%
Larry Ellison
$63.1K Vol.
0%
Mark Zuckerberg
$134K Vol.
0%
Jensen Huang
$182K Vol.
0%
Sergey Brin
$89.8K Vol.
0%
Larry Page
$156K Vol.
0%
Michael Dell
$1.4K Vol.
0%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Timeline and payout

Ends January 3, 2027.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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