Next French Presidential Election

$156M Vol.Apr 19, 2027

Market probability

Marine Le Pen46.0%Édouard Philippe18.0%David Lisnard14.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

Marine Le Pen
$4.3M Vol.
46%
Édouard Philippe
$2.5M Vol.
18%1%
David Lisnard
$5.3M Vol.
14%1%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
$2.4M Vol.
11%
Raphaël Glucksmann
$3M Vol.
5%
François Hollande
$2.6M Vol.
2%
Gabriel Attal
$3.2M Vol.
1%
Jordan Bardella
$2.9M Vol.
1%
Sarah Knafo
$2.7M Vol.
1%
Éric Zemmour
$3.1M Vol.
1%
Bruno Retailleau
$3.1M Vol.
1%
Christine Lagarde
$1.1M Vol.
1%
Dominique de Villepin
$2.7M Vol.
1%
Sébastien Lecornu
$2.3M Vol.
0%
Natacha Polony
$82.2K Vol.
0%
Xavier Bertrand
$6.2M Vol.
0%
François Ruffin
$4.8M Vol.
0%
Marine Tondelier
$4.6M Vol.
0%
Ségolène Royal
$7M Vol.
0%
François Asselineau
$6.3M Vol.
0%
Jean Castex
$2M Vol.
0%
Karim Bouamrane
$1.3M Vol.
0%
Laurent Wauquiez
$3.7M Vol.
0%
Fabien Roussel
$4.3M Vol.
0%
Olivier Faure
$6.4M Vol.
0%
Clémentine Autain
$5M Vol.
0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
$4.9M Vol.
0%
Michel Barnier
$5.3M Vol.
0%
Valérie Pécresse
$4.1M Vol.
0%
François Bayrou
$5.9M Vol.
0%
Élisabeth Borne
$5.5M Vol.
0%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
$5.8M Vol.
0%
Gérald Darmanin
$2.1M Vol.
0%
Carole Delga
$4.7M Vol.
0%
Bernard Cazeneuve
$2.4M Vol.
0%
Manuel Bompard
$5.2M Vol.
0%
Mathilde Panot
$6.4M Vol.
0%
Juan Branco
$2.4M Vol.
0%
Clémence Guetté
$4.2M Vol.
0%
Lucie Castets
$424K Vol.
0%
Yannick Jadot
$750K Vol.
0%
François Baroin
$1.4M Vol.
0%
Marion Maréchal
$873K Vol.
0%
Anasse Kazib
$50 Vol.
0%
Sylvain Durif
$1.1K Vol.
0%

Market rules

About this market

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Timeline and payout

Ends April 19, 2027.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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