Human moon landing in 2026?

$2M Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Market probability

2% chance

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

Yes
$2M Vol.
2%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Timeline and payout

Ends January 1, 2027.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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