How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

$525K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Market probability

<546.0%5-635.0%7-81.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

<5
$105K Vol.
46%1%
5-6
$120K Vol.
35%2%
7-8
$165K Vol.
1%
9-10
$66.3K Vol.
1%
>16
$15.3K Vol.
0%
11-12
$11.4K Vol.
0%
13-14
$11.1K Vol.
0%
15-16
$32.1K Vol.
0%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Timeline and payout

Ends January 1, 2027.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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