GDP growth in 2026

$89.1K Vol.Jan 29, 2027

Market probability

2.0–2.5%55.0%>2.5%43.0%1.5–2.0%2.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

2.0–2.5%
$20.8K Vol.
55%
>2.5%
$25.3K Vol.
43%
1.5–2.0%
$10K Vol.
2%
<0.5%
$9.1K Vol.
0%
0.5–1.0%
$18.5K Vol.
0%
1.0–1.5%
$5.5K Vol.
0%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Timeline and payout

Ends January 29, 2027.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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