Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

$3M Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Market probability

December 31, 202740.0%June 30, 202725.0%March 31, 202717.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

December 31, 2027
$9.2K Vol.
40%
June 30, 2027
$5.3K Vol.
25%2%
March 31, 2027
$24.4K Vol.
17%7%
December 31, 2026
$2.3M Vol.
7%1%
November 30, 2026
$34.8K Vol.
3%
October 31, 2026
$169K Vol.
1%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Timeline and payout

Ends January 1, 2027.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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