Fed rate cut by...?

$3.8M Vol.Jan 29, 2028

Market probability

July 2027 Meeting50.0%April 2027 Meeting29.0%June 2027 Meeting28.0%

Outcomes

Chance · Price per share

July 2027 Meeting
$127 Vol.
50%1%
April 2027 Meeting
$51 Vol.
29%
June 2027 Meeting
$27 Vol.
28%2%
March 2027 Meeting
$2.2K Vol.
13%
January 2027 Meeting
$7.6K Vol.
7%
December 2026 Meeting
$424K Vol.
3%1%
October 2026 Meeting
$235K Vol.
1%

Market rules

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Timeline and payout

Ends January 29, 2028.

Winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, so a share’s price in cents is the market’s implied chance of that outcome.

Social & activity

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