December 31
October 31
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Politics · Featured
December 31
October 31
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Read full rulesDecember 31
October 31
December 31
November 15
Yes
No
No change
25 bps increase
December 31, 2027
December 31, 2026
November 30
October 31
October 1 - 31, 2026
No return before November 1, 2026
30M+
31M+
25 bps increase
No change
Yes
No
Does not return by November 1, 2026
October 1 - 31, 2026
Yes
No
October 31
December 31
Yes
No
Yes
No
30M+
31M+
Yes
No
1.0-2.0%
0-1.0%
Yes
No
3.1%+
2.8-3.0%
Yes
No
Yes
No
December 31
October 31
December 31
October 31
30M+
31M+
December 31
October 31
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No